Weather situation September 28, 2024 (as of 26.09.24)
A pronounced low-pressure influence extends from Scandinavia across Central Europe to the central Mediterranean. Croatia is on the front side of a south-westerly flow. On Friday and during the night to Saturday, a small-scale area of low pressure will move across Croatia and Istria together with its low pressure foothills, bringing in slightly cooler air. The change in air masses will be accompanied by stormy winds and isolated showers with heavy and sometimes thundery precipitation. After the low pressure system passes through, the weather will calm down.
How reliable is the prognosis?
The general weather situation is safe. The change in air masses – as the cold front passes through – is associated with cloud formation and increasing shower/thunderstorm activity. As the change of air mass occurs later on Friday afternoon, evening and in the first half of the night on Saturday, the weather will calm down towards the start of the race. However, there is a general uncertainty as to how quickly the low pressure system will cross Istria, as the individual models differ from each other and the forecast should generally be treated with caution in terms of hourly accuracy. On Saturday, slight destabilization is expected during the day, which will be more pronounced over the mountains in particular.
Attention regarding weather apps/providers!
Not every weather app or weather website has its own weather model. Different weather service providers sometimes use the same or a different weather model. For example, out of ten weather apps from different providers, eight may use the same model and therefore forecast the same weather. The fact that eight out of ten weather apps predict the same weather does not make it any more likely!
What does this mean for the race?
It will probably be dry at the start. Due to overnight rain, the road may still be wet at the start of the race in areas protected from the sun and wind: beware of the risk of slipping! There is a slight risk of rain or showers both in the morning and in the afternoon. Short showers are possible, especially in the higher, mountainous sections of the route. Here, too, it is important to watch out for wet or damp and greasy roads, especially on steep descents and bends. The temperatures barely move. It is already mild at the start with just under 20 degrees. During the day, temperatures are expected to reach 22 degrees in the lower areas and 19 degrees in the mountains. The wind is still very gusty and noticeable at first, but tends to calm down as the day progresses. Wind conditions typical of Istria remain (sea breeze).
UPDATE 27.09.24:
Little has changed in the forecast of the weather models. The western part of Istria should already have been crossed by a low pressure area in the morning and the probability of rain in the first hours of the race is low. Later in the morning, the likelihood of light rain increases on all routes and again in the afternoon.
Istria155: the shortest route takes you to the central mountains where light showers can occur. Here the temperatures in the upper part are around 18-19 degrees. Be careful on descents! Especially after Pazin. From the last Feed Zone, the risk of showers is low and only increases again in the late afternoon. A headwind from the sea is to be expected.
Istria235 and Istra300 will take you to the eastern part of Istria where the low pressure system can still cause intermittent light rain. The chance of rain will decrease towards midday, before isolated showers are to be expected in the late afternoon, especially in the northern mountains of Istria. Temperatures will be 19-20 degrees in the morning and in the mountains and 20-21 degrees in the afternoon.
A safe journey to all participants!
